El Niño is firmly established and is expected to strengthen in the coming months, warns the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). It affects temperatures and rainfall patterns around the world.
For South Africa, the development could be significant because El Niño typically affects weather patterns over the southern part of Africa. This could be particularly important for the country's summer rainfall areas, agriculture, water resources and wildfire risk. However, the precise impact will vary from region to region, with a warmer and drier summer season expected. The WMO emphasises that El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon and is not caused by climate change.
Clare Nullis of the WMO said on Thursday in a statement that the phenomenon is driven by exceptionally warm sea conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This can strengthen, weaken or alter the typical impact. Celeste Saulo, WMO Secretary-General, warned that the impacts of droughts and floods have already caused disruption and damage, and that these impacts are expected to increase as El Niño strengthens.
The WMO emphasises that the strength of El Niño alone does not determine how severe the impacts will be in a specific country. The Niño 3.4 index, which measures sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, rose from an average of 1.5 °C above normal during May to July to two °C above normal in July. Weekly values then increased further between late July and mid-August to approximately between 2.2 °C and 2.6 °C above normal. For September to November 2026, the WMO expects a greater likelihood of above-average temperatures over nearly all land areas worldwide. The WMO expects that El Niño could reach very strong intensity by the end of this year, with climate impacts that could continue into 2027.
According to the WMO, the current El Niño requires extraordinary preparation and they have launched a major mobilisation together with national weather and hydrological services to strengthen early warning and preparedness.
Source: World Meteorological Organisation
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This article is an automatic English translation of a Nuusflits article originally published in Afrikaans. Read the Afrikaans original.
