South Africa is already experiencing an El Niño that according to the South African Weather Service is developing exceptionally early and rapidly. Dr Christien Engelbrecht, chief scientist for long-range forecasting at the SAWS, said during a media conference on 18 September that the current El Niño is characterised by exceptionally early strong seasonal forecasts.
Forecasts indicate that the 2026/27 phenomenon could reach a very strong level by late 2026 or early 2027, while there is currently a greater likelihood of below-average rainfall by mid-summer and a very high likelihood of above-average temperatures over the coming three months.
The weather service warns however that a strong El Niño does not automatically mean that the entire Southern Africa will experience a dry summer, and that local impacts are determined by seasonal rainfall and temperature forecasts. The weather service says the event became firmly established by mid-August, with increasing sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
The public is advised to follow the weather service's daily weather forecasts, warnings and monthly seasonal updates.
According to the national disaster management centre, preparation must begin before the possible impact becomes visible, while the agricultural research council warns that El Niño is usually associated with less grazing and lower summer grain yields. The health sector is meanwhile preparing for possible extreme heat, particularly among vulnerable groups.
Print here to read the full statement from the media conference.
This article is an automatic English translation of a Nuusflits article originally published in Afrikaans. Read the Afrikaans original.
