Load shedding May 2026 is back on the risk register after 230 consecutive days clear, with Eskom’s own winter outlook flagging a possible 2 100MW shortfall under a high-demand scenario. Public assurance from Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa points to no Stage 4 or higher. Eskom’s tabled scenarios still cover Stage 6 if cold-front demand and unplanned breakdowns coincide.
Also read: Petrol hits R26.52 a litre: full breakdown of SA’s 6 May 2026 fuel hike
Load shedding May 2026: what Eskom’s winter outlook says
The 2026 outlook published by Eskom carries two scenarios. The base case projects an Energy Availability Factor of 64% with no load shedding required if unplanned losses stay below 13 000MW. The high-risk case lifts unplanned losses to 16 000MW and triggers Stage 2 to Stage 6 cuts during the peak demand window between 18 May and 12 August. The wider band reflects coal fleet variability, not new diesel constraints.
EAF trend through 2026
The Energy Availability Factor recovered to 67% in February before slipping to 62% during the autumn maintenance window. Year-on-year improvement is roughly 4 percentage points. Medupi Unit 4 and Kusile Units 1 to 3 carry the recovery. Koeberg Unit 2 is back online, adding 920MW. Distributed solar feeding into the grid now offsets roughly 5 600MW of midday demand on clear weekdays.
Regional risk by metro
The City of Johannesburg, City of Tshwane and eThekwini face the sharpest exposure during evening peaks, driven by ageing primary infrastructure and high heating loads. Cape Town benefits from its own pumped-storage and demand-response programme, often shaving one stage off the national schedule. Mangaung and Buffalo City carry equipment-failure risk independent of Eskom’s national curtailment decisions.
Business continuity checklist
Manufacturers and SMEs should confirm fuel supply for backup generators, test automatic transfer switches, audit UPS battery health and validate that key staff have remote-work tools. Body corporates should publish the building’s Eskom load-shedding block in writing and confirm compliance with municipal generator bylaws. Insurers are increasingly excluding losses where Stage 6 was forecast and no documented response plan was in place.
Inverter and generator compliance in 2026
The latest NRS 097-2-3 update tightens grid-tied inverter requirements, with anti-islanding tests and reactive-power profiles now mandatory for installations above 10kVA. The City of Cape Town, City of Johannesburg and City of Tshwane each require a registration certificate before connection. Embedded generation above 100kVA needs a Nersa licence. Non-compliant installations face disconnection and a fine.
Frequently asked questions
Will load shedding return in May 2026?
Eskom’s base case forecasts no cuts through May. The high-risk scenario flags Stage 2 to Stage 6 only if unplanned breakdowns push past 16 000MW. Any deviation is announced by 14h00 the day before.
What is the EAF and why does it matter?
The Energy Availability Factor measures the percentage of installed Eskom capacity actually able to generate. An EAF of 64% leaves roughly 30 000MW available out of 47 000MW nominal. Above 65% means enough buffer for routine maintenance.
Do I need a permit for a generator at home?
Most metros require registration for fixed installations and any embedded generation feeding the grid. Portable generators below 10kVA used only during outages and not connected to the grid generally do not require a permit. Installation must still meet COC standards.
How long are Stage 6 outages?
Stage 6 implies up to 12 hours of cuts a day, in two-hour or four-hour blocks. The schedule for each suburb is published on EskomSePush and on the relevant metro website.
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Source: Eskom, Department of Electricity and Energy, Nersa
